The Tragedy of Potential

Everyone has inside of him a piece of good news. The good news is that you don’t know how great you can be! How much you can love! What you can accomplish! And what your potential is!

-Anne Frank

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Mike Darr was an above average fielder.

The Phoenix night grew older as Mike Darr, Duane Johnson, and Ben Howard sped down Interstate-10. The friends had been out drinking, celebrating Darr and Howard’s final night of the off-season before spring training started later that morning. Darr was slated to be the San Diego Padres’ Opening Day center fielder. It was February 16, 2002.

When Oscar Taveras got in his red Chevy Camaro in Sosua, Dominican Republic, on October 25, 2014, he’d had over 15 alcoholic drinks in about two hours. His girlfriend was in the passenger seat. Taveras started the car and began driving to Puerto Plata, his birthplace. Taveras was one of the top prospects in baseball and was all but guaranteed to be the starting right fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2015.

At the time of their deaths, Darr was 25 and Taveras was 22.

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When I was 22 years old, I had just graduated college and set out to live in Los Angeles to be the “next great writer.” I had it all planned out, too. Step 1: Find an apartment. Step 2: Attend UCLA. Step 3: Flat out strike it rich. It was as stupid as it was simple.

But I was young and brash and really had no fear of anything. It’s truly a beautiful age to be. The world has no expectations of you. Even though the deck is stacked against you (because, really, chances are you’re going to be a nobody-can’t-hack-it…chances are), you have no inkling of that being true. How naïve and brazen you are when you’re young. There you go, hightailing it, living your life to the fullest, flipping the bird to everyone, even Death, because there’s nothing in the world that can stop you.

I made it to L.A., the City of Angels; found myself a dingy apartment in the neighborhood of Palms; even got accepted into the UCLA Screenwriting Program. I used to get martinis after class with a friend of mine, who later went on to write for People and Spin and AP, and we would talk about screenplays, movies and the craft of writing. We were the best writers at UCLA, soon to be the best writers in the industry.

Unfortunately, when you’re young, you can’t tell if you’re talented at something or not. It’s true, either you are or you aren’t, but it’s tough to tell. I lasted a year in L.A. Clearly, I was not.

Whenever a talented person passes away young (a la James Dean, Marilyn Monroe, Cliff Burton, etc.), my brain always takes me back to the time when I was hightailing it. When I was grooving through life without any breaks.

Rotoballs Podcast: April ’14

Click the link: rotoballs ep 1.14

Brian Dorsey, Ryan Butler, and Ryan Short discuss fantasy baseball topics including Spring Training, News, Injuries, and Standings.

Brian’s Top 15 Third Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’14

I don’t really feel like adding any obnoxious intro for these guys. So enjoy the video and the rankings.

Brian’s Top-13 Second Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’14

Robinson Cano might be shipwrecked in Seattle for years.

With less than a week before Opening Day in San Diego between the Padres and Dodgers, we release our second basemen rankings and projections. In the coming days, there will be rankings and projections for third, shortstop, outfield, starting and relief pitching. Check back here throughout the week for those. Here are the rankings for second base. [Note: Jurickson Profar has been struck out due to a 2-3 month stint on the DL].

Brian’s Top-24 First Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’14

“Yeah, it’s this big.”

First base continues to be one of the deepest positions in fantasy. Food for thought: 14 of the men on this list of 24 ended the year ranked in Yahoo!’s top-100 players. In drafts this year, 15 of these guys are going top-100. There’s no excuse to not have a serviceable first baseman in 2014.

Here’s something else to think about: Albert Pujols’ ADP this year is 47.4. Albert freakin’ Pujols. Going in the 4th-5th round. Don’t get me wrong, the man who talks to photocopiers in ESPN commercials hasn’t been his usual self the past few seasons, but he’s Albert Pujols. Talk about potential value.

Potential busts at the position: Chris Davis (ADP: 8.1), Joey Votto (15.8), and Allen Craig (57.0). I have no doubt in my mind that Davis’ power is legit, but because of what he was just two seasons ago, I still have icky feelings. I’ve never been a Votto fan, so maybe I’m biased here, but when we’re celebrating a player who hit 24 HR with 74 RBI the year before, it makes me want to break things. And Craig is just a walking injury and if you’re a really good roulette player, go ahead, take a spin.

Brian’s Top 16 Catcher Rankings and Projections for ’14

Jon Heder stars as Buster Posey in the drama “Catching: Life on My Knees”

I wasn’t sure if I was going to be doing rankings this year, but here I am, on a Sunday morning (with plenty of actual work to be doing) thinking about baseball, watching baseball, and projecting baseball. Like every year, I begin with the men behind the plate, not because they’re an integral part of fantasy, but because they’re the generals of the infield; everything has to go through these squatting men.

There are probably 2-3 catchers I would entertain taking in the top-100 (entertain, not necessarily enact). Outside of the top three, all backstops are created equal. I know I’ve said this many times before–in conversation, on message boards, and right here on Rotoballs, but–do not waste a mid-round pick on a catcher (unless you’re in a league that requires two catchers). As my projections will show, the difference between Carlos Santana and Jarrod Saltalamacchia is negligible.

The Two Month Report Card

Sagres, Portugal…The End of the World.

On a clear morning, you can go out to the California coast and peer off the cliffs at the extending horizon that both seems to go on forever and have a clear, definitive ending line. You can imagine you’re back in Sagres, Portugal in the 1400s, standing on a cliff that they call “The End of the World.” You can imagine you’re an explorer, making predictions on whether the Earth was round and the ocean extended forever, or flat and ended in a tragically steep waterfall.

When making any kind of prediction, there is always the risk of being wrong, in fact, you’re likely going to wrong more often than right. A prediction, like the future, is uncertain, it’s the unknown. So when I set out to make my preseason fantasy baseball projections, I know going into it failure isn’t just a possibility, it’s a certainty.

The following are some projections that I had right…and wrong, dead wrong. For each position, I chose one player who I was correct on and one player who I was incorrect on. You can view all of my projections in our Rankings ’13 section. Included with each player are their “On Pace Stats” (as of May 30th).

Catcher

Correct Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Wilin Rosario	62, 24, 65, 3, .260	64, 28, 83, 9, .268
Incorrect Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Miguel Montero	65, 17, 90, 1, .290	49, 9, 46, 0, .190

First Base

Correct Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Edwin Encarnacion	84, 24, 96, 10, .266	93, 42, 135, 6, .264
Incorrect Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Paul Goldschmidt	81, 27, 88, 15, .280	104, 37, 125, 12, .337

Closer Circle of Trust: May 2013

		Trusted	Solid	Danger
		Heath Bell	Greg Holland	Kevin Gregg	Jose Valverde
	Edward Mujica	Andrew Bailey	Addison Reed	Huston Street	Grant Balfour	Casey Janssen
	Ernesto Frieri	Sergio Romo	Craig Kimbrel	Aroldis Chapman	Joe Nathan	Tom Wilhelmsen
	Jim Henderson	Jim Johnson	Mariano Rivera	Jonathan Papelbon	Jason Grilli
	Jose Veras	Fernando Rodney	Chris Perez	Rafael Betancourt	Rafael Soriano	Bobby Parnell
		Steve Cishek	Brandon League	Glen Perkins

Notes: Trusted pitchers are “set it and forget it” guys. Solid pitchers have a reasonable chance at recording 30 saves. Danger pitchers have a reasonable chance at having the door closed behind them, very soon.

Rotoballs Podcast: April/May ’13

https://rotoballs.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/rotoballs-podcast-1-0.m4a

Special thanks to Open Hand for providing the music for this episode.

[Click play on the left or the link on the right]

Brian Dorsey: Host

Ryan Short: Contributing Writer

 

Fantasy Potpourri: Let’s All Pass Some Judgement

[The following are mostly fantasy baseball notes with a sprinkling of pop-cultural snippets]

• As if Giancarlo “Michael” Stanton wasn’t already having the season that dreams nightmares are made of (3 HR, .227 BA), Ed Guana of CBSSports.com has reported that Stanton left Monday’s tilt with a hamstring injury. Hey, if he’s not getting at-bats, he can’t strikeout, right?
• Super prospect Nolan Arenado made his major league debut on Sunday, going 0-3 with a BB. While he’s a must add in NL-only leagues, mixed leaguers should let him swim with the likes of Mike Moustakas and Pedro Alvarez in the free agent pool until he shows us something. A lot of oh-fers are in his future.
• ESPN’s Chris Broussard came out of the closet Monday as a Bible thumping douche bag. The sports reporter/analyst/talking-head, when referring to Jason Collins announcement that he’s gay, stated that homosexuality is “an open rebellion to God.” So is getting a tattoo, wearing polyester, and, oh yeah, getting divorced. Maybe Broussard should come down on NBA players who augment their bodies, wear jerseys, and have hoes in different area codes.