Brian, First Base, Projections, Rankings

Brian’s Top-24 First Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’14


"Yeah, it's this big."

“Yeah, it’s this big.”

First base continues to be one of the deepest positions in fantasy. Food for thought: 14 of the men on this list of 24 ended the year ranked in Yahoo!’s top-100 players. In drafts this year, 15 of these guys are going top-100. There’s no excuse to not have a serviceable first baseman in 2014.

Here’s something else to think about: Albert Pujols’ ADP this year is 47.4. Albert freakin’ Pujols. Going in the 4th-5th round. Don’t get me wrong, the man who talks to photocopiers in ESPN commercials hasn’t been his usual self the past few seasons, but he’s Albert Pujols. Talk about potential value.

Potential busts at the position: Chris Davis (ADP: 8.1), Joey Votto (15.8), and Allen Craig (57.0). I have no doubt in my mind that Davis’ power is legit, but because of what he was just two seasons ago, I still have icky feelings. I’ve never been a Votto fan, so maybe I’m biased here, but when we’re celebrating a player who hit 24 HR with 74 RBI the year before, it makes me want to break things. And Craig is just a walking injury and if you’re a really good roulette player, go ahead, take a spin.

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Brian, Projections, Rankings

The Two Month Report Card


Sagres, Portugal...The End of the World.

Sagres, Portugal…The End of the World.

On a clear morning, you can go out to the California coast and peer off the cliffs at the extending horizon that both seems to go on forever and have a clear, definitive ending line. You can imagine you’re back in Sagres, Portugal in the 1400s, standing on a cliff that they call “The End of the World.” You can imagine you’re an explorer, making predictions on whether the Earth was round and the ocean extended forever, or flat and ended in a tragically steep waterfall.

When making any kind of prediction, there is always the risk of being wrong, in fact, you’re likely going to wrong more often than right. A prediction, like the future, is uncertain, it’s the unknown. So when I set out to make my preseason fantasy baseball projections, I know going into it failure isn’t just a possibility, it’s a certainty.

The following are some projections that I had right…and wrong, dead wrong. For each position, I chose one player who I was correct on and one player who I was incorrect on. You can view all of my projections in our Rankings ’13 section. Included with each player are their “On Pace Stats” (as of May 30th).

Catcher

Correct Pick Brian’s Preseason Projections On Pace Stats
Wilin Rosario 62, 24, 65, 3, .260 64, 28, 83, 9, .268
Incorrect Pick Brian’s Preseason Projections On Pace Stats
Miguel Montero 65, 17, 90, 1, .290 49, 9, 46, 0, .190

First Base

Correct Pick Brian’s Preseason Projections On Pace Stats
Edwin Encarnacion 84, 24, 96, 10, .266 93, 42, 135, 6, .264
Incorrect Pick Brian’s Preseason Projections On Pace Stats
Paul Goldschmidt 81, 27, 88, 15, .280 104, 37, 125, 12, .337

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Brian, First Base, Projections, Rankings

Brian’s Top 14 First Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’13


Don't let his name fool you.

Don’t let his name fool you.

[Editor’s Note: Mark Teixeira is expected to be out 8-10 weeks, putting his return date around the middle of June. He has fallen out of the Top 14]

It’s easy to fall in love with the protectors of first base (also known as the league’s best kissers) because they’re the producers, big boppers. They’re usually the easiest to project and most consistently reliable. Even in an off year, Albert Pujols still put up numbers that any other player would’ve been proud of. Billy Butler, the bigger, better known cousin of Ryan “Quentin” Butler, turned in an ox of a season. Even seemingly part-time player, Allen Craig, reminded us of Red Bird of old, Jack Clark.

But that doesn’t mean the position doesn’t come with its question marks. Joey Votto spent most of 2012 nursing a sore knee (not to worry, Jay Bruce kissed it better). Adrian Gonzalez had a power outage, changing his nickname from “A-Gone” to “Dirty Gonzalez.” Marcus Teixeira, who can’t seem to justify his hefty contract, didn’t come to play in ’12.

But with the influx of young talent (Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Hosmer, and Anthony Rizzo), everyone in a standard 10-team league should get to first base this season.

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