Brian, First Base, Projections, Rankings

Brian’s Top-24 First Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’14


"Yeah, it's this big."

“Yeah, it’s this big.”

First base continues to be one of the deepest positions in fantasy. Food for thought: 14 of the men on this list of 24 ended the year ranked in Yahoo!’s top-100 players. In drafts this year, 15 of these guys are going top-100. There’s no excuse to not have a serviceable first baseman in 2014.

Here’s something else to think about: Albert Pujols’ ADP this year is 47.4. Albert freakin’ Pujols. Going in the 4th-5th round. Don’t get me wrong, the man who talks to photocopiers in ESPN commercials hasn’t been his usual self the past few seasons, but he’s Albert Pujols. Talk about potential value.

Potential busts at the position: Chris Davis (ADP: 8.1), Joey Votto (15.8), and Allen Craig (57.0). I have no doubt in my mind that Davis’ power is legit, but because of what he was just two seasons ago, I still have icky feelings. I’ve never been a Votto fan, so maybe I’m biased here, but when we’re celebrating a player who hit 24 HR with 74 RBI the year before, it makes me want to break things. And Craig is just a walking injury and if you’re a really good roulette player, go ahead, take a spin.

There are four tiers for this position, indicated by the underline [projections are based on three-year averages and sabermetric analysis]:

1. Miguel Cabrera (DET) 104 42 124 3 .333
2. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 108 38 115 14 .291
3. Chris Davis (BAL) 94 40 109 3 .271
4. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) 85 35 107 9 .279
5. Prince Fielder (TEX) 86 31 101 1 .288
6. Freddie Freeman (ATL) 90 23 106 1 .308
7. Joey Votto (CIN) 97 26 81 5 .301
8. David Ortiz (BOS) 77 27 89 2 .304
9. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) 73 20 104 1 .296
10. Albert Pujols (LAA) 77 24 88 2 .274
11. Allen Craig (STL) 75 18 90 2 .311
12. Mark Trumbo (ARI) 76 33 97 4 .251
13. Eric Hosmer (KC) 81 19 83 14 .284
14. Billy Butler (KC) 68 23 87 1 .303
15. Anthony Rizzo (CHC) 73 25 84 7 .265
16. Michael Cuddyer (COL) 64 18 79 9 .297
17. Brandon Moss (OAK) 75 26 93 3 .257
18. Matt Adams (STL) 63 23 80 0 .275
19. Brandon Belt (SF) 79 19 74 7 .282
20. Mike Napoli (BOS) 80 25 87 1 .244
21. Victor Martinez (DET) 71 17 81 0 .288
22. Jose Abreu (CWS) 59 24 78 2 .265
23. Mark Teixeira (NYY) 66 23 83 0 .245
24. Ryan Howard (PHI) 71 26 80 0 .264
Standard

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