Brian, Rankings, Starting Pitchers

Brian’s Top 32 Starting Pitcher Rankings and Projections


It's always sunny in Philadelphia.

When I’m looking at drafting a pitcher, I want a guy who is going to first and foremost get around 200 innings pitched and 200 strikeouts. If you can’t pitch near 200 innings it usually means you’re the type of pitcher who a) can’t stay healthy, b) you’re so inconsistent you don’t often go deeper than the 5th inning, or c) you’re a youngster who has an inning limit.

We all love the young dudes, probably because a lot of us can’t see the finish line. All we’re thinking about is April. We all want to own that new car with shiny rims and a big, bulging engine. We all want to show off our baseball knowledge. We want to piss off our friends.

Did you see who Ricky drafted? Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson. I really wanted him on my team this year!

Hellickson will probably have pretty good numbers…for about 100 innings. And in September when the Rays are out of the playoff race, do you really think the organization is going to want one of their promising young pitchers blowing out his arm? Unless Dusty Baker and Joe Maddon are involved in the first manager for manager trade, Hellickson will be riding pine for the home stretch. But Brian, what if the Rays ARE in the playoff race? If for some unforeseen reason the Rays can overcome losing half their team from last year and are competing for a playoff spot in 2011, I can guarantee Mr. Maddon is going to be driving one of his less shiny, but more trusted cars pitchers.

The reason I like guys who can reach the 200 punch-out total is because it’s sexy. Are you jumping up and down and doing cartwheels after you draft Ted Lilly and his 160 Ks? No. Not really. Lilly isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s not going to anchor my staff. On the flip-side, those of you who scored Francisco Liriano in the late rounds last year were probably geeked out of your minds. You were seeing backwards Ks. Power pitchers are exciting and getting double digit strikeouts in eight innings from “your guy” is smile inducing.

The three pitchers I think who rebound big time on this list are Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, and Wandy Rodriguez. Haren (19) and Wandy (26) are going to be draft day steals (and I have them higher than most).

Three pitchers who I expect will regress significantly are Ubaldo Jimenez, David Price, and Trevor Cahill (the only reason I have him on the list is to showcase how low I’m on him). All three of these guys had ERAs and WHIPs that weren’t conducive to their peripheral stats. Expect an uptick in averages and a downturn in wins.

The stat line goes like this: IP, W, K, ERA, WHIP.

Talk it out in the comments section.

 

1. Roy Halladay- 240, 19, 210, 2.70, 1.06

2. Tim Lincecum- 220, 15, 245, 3.00, 1.18

3. Adam Wainwright- 230, 19, 210, 2.50, 1.15

4. Felix Hernandez- 230, 13, 215, 2.45, 1.08

5. Josh Johnson- 195, 14, 195, 2.60, 1.15

6. Cliff Lee- 215, 17, 200, 3.35, 1.08

7. Jon Lester- 200, 17, 210, 3.20, 1.22

8. CC Sabathia- 230, 18, 190, 3.28, 1.20

9. Ubaldo Jimenez- 215, 16, 210, 3.49, 1.26

10. Clayton Kershaw- 210, 15, 210, 3.00, 1.17

11. David Price- 200, 15, 190, 3.35, 1.25

12. Justin Verlander- 220, 16, 217, 3.40, 1.18

13. Tommy Hanson- 215, 14, 190, 3.15, 1.17

14. Zack Greinke- 220, 15, 180, 3.40, 1.19

15. Mat Latos- 200, 15, 195, 3.50, 1.13

16. Francisco Liriano- 190, 14, 199, 3.60, 1.22

17. Jered Weaver- 220, 15, 195, 3.40, 1.15

18. Cole Hamels- 200, 13, 200, 3.30, 1.21

19. Dan Haren- 210, 14, 208, 3.55, 1.15

20. Yovani Gallardo- 185, 15, 200, 3.70, 1.30

21. Chris Carpenter- 205, 16, 165, 3.15, 1.20

22. Matt Cain- 185, 14, 170, 3.20, 1.15

23. Roy Oswalt- 200, 14, 175, 3.30, 1.18

24. Clay Buchholz- 193, 16, 145, 3.10, 1.25

25. Max Scherzer- 195, 15, 190, 3.65, 1.26

26. Wandy Rodriguez- 200, 13, 180, 3.30, 1.25

27. Jonathan Sanchez- 200, 13, 190, 3.50, 1.30

28. Shaun Marcum- 190, 14, 160, 3.50, 1.20

29. Madison Bumgarner- 170, 14, 150, 3.30, 1.25

30. Ted Lilly- 180, 12, 155, 3.45, 1.16

31. Chad Billingsley- 190, 13, 170, 3.50, 1.29

32. Trevor Cahill- 190, 15, 120, 3.70, 1.30

 

Trevor gets to see Vernon Wells twice as many times this year!

 

 

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2 thoughts on “Brian’s Top 32 Starting Pitcher Rankings and Projections

  1. Isaac says:

    Finally, someone placing Wainwright in the top 3. Every year I draft the guy because people seem to underrate him in my opinion. I usually get the guy in the lower half of the top 10 pitchers drafted every year. I have actually seen sites swapping your placement of Lester and Wainwright this year, and quite frankly I disagree. I am a Red Sox fan, and love Lester, however, I believe your placement of Lester as the 7th pitcher is about right. I would possibly take Lee over Johnson, and would likely take 10 through 14 over Ubaldo, but, I dislike Ubaldo.

    • rotobrian says:

      I don’t like Ubaldo either, but I can’t see him totally falling apart. I won’t draft him this year, unless I got him for a really good value.

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