Brian, Rankings, Third Base

Brian’s Top 20 Third Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’11


"Check out my antlers."

If you thought second base was shallow this year, take a look at third. There are about four studly men who I would employ to protect my hot corner and know for a fact they would earn their paychecks. Beyond that, there’s a bunch of guys with talent, but all of them, for one reason or another, find ways to poop the bed. Consider this: Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, and Pablo Sandoval have all been considered top-five third basemen at some point in their careers, yet none of them have been consistent with their play on the field.

Beltre’s recent Boston bombing was his first acceptable season since he parlayed a once-in-a-lifetime season into an enormous payday. He only shows up when he knows the well is running dry, and friends, Texas, though rumored to be going bankrupt, just gave Adrian a bunch of money. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are significantly lower in 2011.

Ramirez appears to be breaking down before our eyes. Injuries and a decline in stats make him a not-so desirable three-bag candidate. Reynolds just switched teams (Arizona must’ve grown tired of all the whiffs) and Baltimore, believe it or not, is even less talented than the Diamondbacks. Orioles fans, it just got a lot breezier. And then comes The Big Panda, Mr. Sandoval. All of his averages slipped significantly last year, but using the law of averages, a rebound should be in the works.

The top tier doesn’t need much of an introduction. They’ll give you what you pay for. If you’re looking for a few sleepers in this list, check out Pedro Alvarez and Chris Johnson. Both of these guys could be knocking on the elite door next year.

1.Evan Longoria- 90, 30, 107, 17, .290

2. David Wright- 85, 25, 100, 18, .286

3. Alex Rodriguez- 90, 30, 110, 5, .275

4. Ryan Zimmerman- 89, 27, 96, 3, .290

5. Adrian Beltre- 80, 24, 85, 3, .285

6. Michael Young- 87, 19, 85, 6, .288

7. Aramis Ramirez- 70, 21, 80, 1, .270

8. Jose Bautista- 75, 26, 86, 5, .250

9. Mark Reynolds- 78, 28, 80, 6, .240

10. Martin Prado- 80, 17, 70, 4, .300

11. Casey McGehee- 70, 20, 90, 1, .280

12. Pedro Alvarez- 70, 24, 80, 1, .260

13. Pablo Sandoval- 75, 15, 80, 3, .277

14. Chris Johnson- 63, 17, 79, 7, .285

15. Scott Rolen- 61, 15, 75, 2, .280

16. Ian Stewart- 74, 20, 70, 9, .250

17. Miguel Tejada- 75, 17, 70, 1, .266

18. Juan Uribe- 65, 18, 69, 1, .253

19. David Freese- 55, 12, 55, 3, .285

20. Chase Headley- 65, 13, 60, 10, .260

Standard

6 thoughts on “Brian’s Top 20 Third Basemen Rankings and Projections for ’11

      • I don’t think he’s going to lose 40% of his runs/rbis and 50% of his home runs. And obviously you’re focusing here on standard 5X5, but his OBP is going to be .400-ish again if he shows any semblance of patience, plus he’s got dual-eligibility again, which is tougher to distinguish when you’re breaking down rankings by position, but when I’m thinking about keeping him in my league, I need to talk him up to myself somehow.

        Commas!

  1. rotobrian says:

    I made these rankings for standard 5×5 leagues.

    Regarding keeping him, it would depend on who else I had and what the keeper rules were (i.e. if you drafted him in the 13th, is he your 13th pick for this year?). I personally think he’s the type of player who a lot of teams are going to keep and be disappointed with. I know he’s a “fairly” young player (he’s 29), but it’s not like he’s 22 and figuring things out. He’s never been considered a huge talent (drafted in the 20th round, 11 years ago).

    Last year he set career highs in all five roto categories. Before last year his previous career highs were 75 (R), 16 (HR), and 63 (RBI)! I think ONLY losing 40% of his runs/rbi and 50% of his home runs from last year is being generous.

    He just lost his protection in the lineup (Wells) and Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are both coming off horrendous seasons.

    There’s a reason why you’re trying to convince yourself that he’s good. It’s because you’re not sold on him, rightfully so.

  2. sgolder06 says:

    The only argument I’m buying from you is the protection one. Good gravy, the Blue Jays suck.

    Jose is the only player to be traded 5 times in a single year, so he must have had some appeal way back when. The reason I don’t put as much stock into his previous numbers is the swing adjustment he made. Lots of guys say they’re switching things up at the plate, and usually the differences are miniscule. Not this time.

    I didn’t get to see him much in Pittsburg, but wathcing him last year was really a thing of beauty. 53 of 54 homers were pulled into right field, and all as a result of his approach at the dish. He crowds the plate, and is able to pull any pitch that ends in the strike zone. All he’s looking to avoid is hard stuff in on his hands, and soft stuff away. Everything else he was able to put the bat on.

    Another surprising thing from his year last year was his BABIP…you figure with a breakout season like that, he’d have a lot of luck helping him along. Not the case. it was .233, the lowest of his career. I’m sure the new stroke is partly responsible, since he’s probably more apt to both pop up softly to left, and roll over a bunch of pitches that turn into groundouts, but those bombs he hit were for real.

    All that being said, he might walk 150 times and not get more than one or two good pitches to hit a night, because of how awful Toronto will probably be. Damn.

  3. rotobrian says:

    That’s a big possibility. He probably won’t get much to hit. Plus, pitchers have had a full offseason to look at video of his swing. They’ll pitch him differently. The question is, “Will he be able to adjust?” Listen, if he mashes again this year, I’ll hop on board, but I’m skeptical. I’m the kind of manager who says , “Oh yea? Show it to me again.” (Insert “That’s what she said” comment here).

    But really. Show it to me again, Bautista.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s