Brian, Outfield, Rankings

Brian’s Top 30 Outfielder Rankings and Projections for ’11


"Show of hands. How many of you would sleep with me?"

While some may think outfield is deep this year, upon taking a closer look, there weren’t many 20-20 candidates and very few hit over .300 in 2010. In a 10 team league, you should be able to snag at least three of these first 30 players, but don’t wait too long to fill up your green pastures. The last thing you want is B.J. Upton as your number one, with or without his “30 homer upside.”

Underlined players are to mark the ending of a tier. There are three outfield tiers.

1. Ryan Braun- 100, 35, 115, 19, .315
2. Carl Crawford- 110, 16, 75, 40, .300
3. Carlos Gonzalez- 100, 27, 100, 20, .310
4. Josh Hamilton- 90, 30, 110, 4, .304
5. Matt Holliday- 95, 24, 100, 5, .315
6. Matt Kemp- 90, 31, 90, 20, .265

7. Hunter Pence- 90, 25, 90, 20, .280
8. Nelson Cruz- 80, 25, 80, 15, .305
9. Justin Upton- 80, 20, 80, 20, .275
10. Shin-Soo Choo- 75, 25, 85, 18, .300
11. Andre Ethier- 82, 25, 90, 3, .285
12. Jayson Werth- 75, 30, 75, 17, .275
13. Ichiro Suzuki- 90, 8, 40, 39, .320
14. Alex Rios- 79, 18, 80, 30, .280
15. Andrew McCutchen- 96, 18, 55, 28, .285
16. Jason Heyward- 85, 20, 85, 13, .280
17. Jose Bautista- 75, 26, 86, 5, .250

18. Delmon Young- 75, 17, 80, 3, .285
19. Curtis Granderson- 80, 25, 65, 15, .260
20. Shane Victorino- 100, 13, 60, 32, .280
21. Jay Bruce- 80, 24, 80, 3, .275
22. B. J. Upton- 85, 18, 60, 38, .240
23. Mike Stanton- 65, 28, 80, 4, .260
24. Jacoby Ellsbury- 80, 4, 50, 40, .280
25. Corey Hart- 80, 20, 80, 8, .265
26. Torii Hunter- 75, 22, 90, 10, .280
27. Colby Rasmus- 80, 22, 75, 15, .270
28. Chris B. Young- 75, 18, 80, 17, .250
29. Carlos Quentin- 75, 27, 80, 3, .250
30. Adam Jones- 75, 20, 70, 10, .280

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6 thoughts on “Brian’s Top 30 Outfielder Rankings and Projections for ’11

  1. The Buttman says:

    I think that the stat projections for most of these guys are going to end up being pretty spot-on. I know people are leery of Jose Bautista and the Brady Anderson Syndrome, but I would be surprised if he doesn’t hit at least 30 bombs this year. CarGo is a stud, for sure, but his BABIP was off the charts last year, so I would expect a decline in BA this season, even though balls will fall in at Coors for him. Whoever this ‘rotobrian’ guy is, he sure seems to love Hunter Pence a great deal.

    • rotobrian says:

      Oh, rotobrian LOVES him some Hunter Pence. It’s a crime that this guy is still ranked outside the top 15 outfielders in a mixed 5×5 league. There’s little risk with him at all, and his numbers are actually improving. In a ten team league, he might not be as good at the six I’ve ranked above him, but his three year averages suggest he’s the next best thing.

  2. The Van Buren Boys says:

    I think your rankings are pretty good. However I think your porjections are a little low. We have seen in the past five years an upgrade in pithing and with the supposed drop in steriods hitting numbers have fallen. I think this trend will end this year and we will see numbers begin to climb again. But thats just a guess.

  3. big o says:

    your projections for bautista (17) and quentin (29) are nearly identical .

    2011 will show josh hamilton to be the best outfielder in the majors .
    some will point to an inordinately high babip , last year ,
    but , he did out-perform ryan braun , even though he had over
    100 less plate appearances than braun , in 2010 .

    • rotobrian says:

      Good observation on Bautista and Quentin. Let me explain my reasoning. I think both players can reach those numbers, but it would be a regression for Bautista and a leap for Quentin. I feel Quentin can get there, but he’s riskier, hence the lower ranking. Does that make sense?

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